With the coronavirus pandemic wreaking havoc once again, the film's schedule and shooting in 2022 are looking at a big mess. Bollywood had barely started getting back on its feet, with films doing good business at the box office. In 2021, many long-delayed films such as Akshay Kumar's Sooryavanshi and Ranveer Singh-starrer 83 found their space on the big screen. However, the new variant of coronavirus is back again.
The trade was keeping its fingers crossed and was hoping for the situation to normalize so that the audience can return to the theatres to binge on big-ticket films lined up for release. However, with delays in releases, the box-office clashes are already in the offing.
The trade feels this is going to lead to a domino effect, with films being pushed. Theatre owners have already started to bear the brunt of it and we are now left thinking if film and show shoots will once again be halted amid the rising Covid-19 cases.
Throwing some light on the same, Indian film critic and trade analyst Taran Adarsh explains, “The repercussion has begun. Big films are being delayed – Yesterday, I had put a news update of Akshay Kumar’s Prithviraj being postponed. RRR and Jersey have also been delayed. January is looking shaky at the moment, even when Boney Kapoor has announced Valimai, the biggest Tamil film, will release on 13 January. It will be dubbed in Hindi and let’s not underestimate the power of dubbed cinema in the present time. I feel on one hand there are delays, but on the other directors are willing to release in theatres.”
With Sooryavanshi and Spider-Man we saw a great resurrection of the box-office, as audiences lapped up even when the ticket rates were high. Such was the demand to go back to the big screens. However, with the government planning to impose lockdown restrictions once the daily cases surpass 20,000, which seems likely, we could once again see a steep drop in moviegoers.
Adarsh feels that the industry is going to suffer, however, the charm of the big screen is not going to fade. With restrictions and cinemas being closed or running with 50 per cent occupancy in several states, especially Delhi and Mumbai – which are the main pocket and the rising cases, Adarsh says, “It looks dark. You know the release calendar was booked for the entire year and suddenly something like this happening shakes the industry. We were getting back to normal with three solid hits in a year. It’s a sad state and we can hope for the best. People will be back to theatres once the situation is under control.”
Trade expert Joginder Tuteja has a different take on the situation. He believes, “Covid is going to impact box-office, however, the good part is that unlike the first and second wave, where there was uncertainty on what is going to happen, there’s some sort of predictability this time. People know what the SOPs are, how things are going to work… It has already started to impact the box office. The entire release calendar of January and February is in a mess. March, we’ll get to know you eventually.”
Producer and writer Pranav Adarsh tells us, “Shootings will likely be regulated either with crowd control, safety measures, and timings or be halted completely if we go into a proper lockdown. Film Associations are already having discussions over this. A slowdown is expected, hopefully, it remains momentary.”
Big films like Shahid Kapoor’s Jersey, SS Rajamouli’s RRR, and Akshay Kumar’s Prithviraj decided to postpone releases due to the shutting down of theatres. Forthcoming films like Aamir Khan and Kareena Kapoor Khan’s Laal Singh Chaddha, Alia Bhatt’s Gangubai Kathiawadi, are at the high risk of getting postponed too.
Trade analyst Ramesh Bala believes that it would be a disaster of a situation as the films will eat into each other’s box office if released together. It is not just about the delay but the delay in the release will impact the recovering business in various ways. He says, “The shutting down of theatres is going to change the dynamics. Directors get their films financed and have to return the money, this delay is going to cost them more interest, the pipeline is going to get clogged because films will be released together. This will force them to eat into each other’s box office. It numbers won’t be the same if there’s no gap between the two big releases. With cases going up, theatres are going to close and big movies are not going to release for the next two months. It will have a financial impact on Bollywood. The ticket sales, parking, cafeteria, and everything will suffer financially.”
Independent trade analyst Sreedhar Pillai agrees with Bala and tells us, “It’s going to be a tough call for the industry as states are either shutting theatres or running on 50 per cent occupancy – Mumbai is the highest collecting territory in India followed by Delhi. Night shows will also get impacted because of curfew.”
He tells us that the release date of Radhe Shyam had to be delayed. “The cases in North India are going up every day, and Prabhas has a huge fan following in the North after Bahubali. Postponing the film is the only option for the makers. Even if it was released, it would have suffered at the box-office.”
“March is exam time and it’s not the best time to release films, January and February are mostly going to waste because of the pandemic. Now, when in April, the films will release simultaneously, it’s going to impact box-office drastically,” he adds.
Recently we saw many Bollywood celebrities testing positive for Covid. Recently, Kareena Kapoor Khan along with her friend, Amrita Arora had tested Covid positive. John Abraham and his wife, Priya Runchal have tested positive for Covid-19. Producer Ekta Kapoor is down with the virus too. Nora Fatehi and Mrunal Thakur are some of the celebs who have also been infected by the virus.
Trade analyst Atul Mohan shares, “We’ve been seeing how big films are postponing releases and we can see how actors and directors and producers are testing positive for Covid-19. Some states have prohibited the shooting of films, already. Directors are waiting and observing the right time to release and shoot their films. The last shows are not happening due to the night curfew in many states, which is another reason that is impacting box-office collection. We are not sure when we’ll get back to full occupancy in theatres. It takes a day to announce the closure of the cinema, but when it comes to reopening, it takes months and months. The delegates or the representative from the industry have to meet the ministers and convince them. It happens after a lot of lobbying. Many films will opt for OTT releases as we are here for business and the producers might opt for digital release if they get enough money.”
We can now just wait and hope that the virus scare comes to a stop so that the entertainment industry can sigh in relief once again.
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